High school dropout rates show little improvement in large cities
June 21st, 2006“Students in a handful of big-city school districts have a less than 50-50 chance of graduating from high school with their peers, and a few cities graduate far fewer than half each spring according to researcher Christopher B. Swanson.”
The study estimates the likelihood that a ninth grader will complete high school on time and with a regular diploma. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation sponsored the study.
The Detroit, Baltimore and New York City school districts graduated less than 40 percent of their students.
“The study, which uses 2002 and 2003 data, the most current available, finds that public schools graduate 69.6% of an estimated 4 million eligible students each spring, meaning about 1.2 million students likely won’t graduate this year. That means about 7,000 students drop out per school day, Swanson says.
Researcher Lawrence Mishel of the Economic Policy Institute says Swanson’s figures “seriously understate graduation rates, especially for minorities.” They say that just 52% of blacks graduate, and 57% of Hispanics.
Mishel says by comparing the number of graduates with the number of ninth-graders, Swanson exaggerates the effects of the “ninth-grade bulge,” in which many ninth-graders are held back a year before tackling more advanced work and, often, state-mandated exit exams. Mishel’s most recent research puts the overall U.S. graduation rate at 82%.”
